Author Topic: A8217s Sign Cabrera  (Read 42 times)

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Offline jackky

A8217s Sign Cabrera
« on: October 12, 2017, 03:58:29 AM »
The AL West continues to get more interesting. Capitalizing on a winter of depre sed salaries, the As today signed shortstop Orlando Cabrera to some twelve months, $4 million deal based on our dollar values here on FanGraphs, Cabrera continues to be worth typically $13.5 million over the last 4 years, and hasnt been worth le s than $10 million in almost any season since 2004. In any other market environment, Cabrera would have received a significantly larger contract, but the combination of an imploding economy and his Type A free agent status drove down the suitors, so Cabrera needed to accept the Tharold Simon Jersey best bargain from the only team that expre sed serious interest. That suitor, obviously, was an As team which has clearly shifted its focus towards trying to steal the AL West in 2009. With the Angels prone to take a significant step backwards when it comes to wins, the winner of the AL West could finish with under 90 wins. CHONE has the Angels as the best team within the division, only projected to complete 85-77. The As, prior to signing Cabrera, were projected at 81-81, clearly within striking distance of the playoff berth. D.J. Swearinger Jersey So, just how much ground do the As make up on the Angels with this move? Cabreras playing time will come at the expense of Bobby Crosby, so we simply need to take a look at their respective projected performances to see the amount of a lift Oakland should be expecting. Well start with Cabrera. CHONE is recorded on his offense, as 34 years old middle infielders dont age particularly well. Hes projected for a park adjusted -13 runs offensively over a full season, slightly worse compared to -11 he posted last year. However, the As are acquiring Cabrera for his glove, not his bat his UZR of +16.4 this past year was the best in baseball among shortstops. Of course, it had been additionally Mack Brown Jersey a significant leap over his prior two years performance, and weve consistently cautioned against utilizing a single years price of defensive data to project future performance. Over his career, UZR has Cabrera at +7.2 runs per full season, and hes +7.9 over the last 3 years. A more accurate a sumption about his defense going forward is that hes above average to good, although not likely to be +16 again. If we project Cabrera as +5 defensively at shortstop to go along with his -13 offensively, include the +7.5 run position adjustment, and the +20 run replacement level adjustment, it adds up to +19.5 runs above replacement. Basically, that makes Cabrera a league average shortstop. If you think were underselling his defense, you can include half a win, however the As should be expecting Cabrera to be something like +1.5 to +2.5 wins above a replacement level shortstop in 2009. However, while Crosby has struggled recent years, hes still been slightly much better than replacement level. He hasnt hit, but Junior Galette Jersey hes played average defense to have an SS, and his mixture of -19 offense, +0 defense, +7.5 position adjustment, and +20 replacement level adjustment adds up to +8.5 runs above replacement on the full season, or a little le s than one win Corey Crawford Jersey . In total, Cabrera ought to be about a +1 win upgrade over Crosby at shortstop for the As. Given their new roster, you can bump the As as much as 82 or 83 projected wins, but theyre still a couple of games behind the Angels. Is that win worth $4 million and a second round draft pick? Probably. The marginal worth of wins rises significantly together gets near to playoff contention the revenues generated from playing in October are significant to every organization. The As still arent the favorites in the AL West, but theyre not that far behind the Angels, which move provides them yet another weapon to try to bring down the Angels. For $4 million an additional round pick, its a gamble worth taking.